Matilde Paoletti vs Alessandra Mazzola
Updated
Tennis Gauge's model favors Matilde Paoletti, giving them a 54% chance to win against Alessandra Mazzola (46%). Alessandra Mazzola leads 2-0 in their head-to-head. Paoletti is 5-5 in their last 10, Mazzola 7-3.
Pre-match prediction
The model makes Matilde Paoletti a 54% favorite. The odds and the model roughly agree, so neither side shows value.
Model minus book: -8 pts
Model minus book: -2 pts
Model estimates, not betting advice. How the numbers work · Expected value of Matilde Paoletti at -161 · Model track record
Player comparison
| Matilde Paoletti | Alessandra Mazzola | |
|---|---|---|
| Tennis Gauge rating | 6573 | 6621 |
| Tour rank | WTA #436 | WTA #368 |
| Last 10 matches | 5-5 | 7-3 |
| Last 30 days | 5-3 | 5-2 |
| Current streak | 1 Loss | 1 Loss |
| Season record | 16-12 | 42-24 |
| UTR | 11.38 | 11.28 |
| Elo (52 weeks) | – | 1287 |
| Best surface | – | Clay |
| Worst surface | – | Hard |
Head to head
Alessandra Mazzola leads 2-0.
| Date | Winner | Score | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22.10.2026 | Alessandra Mazzola | 7-6, 7-6 | Italy Santa Margherita Di Pula |
| 09.10.2026 | Alessandra Mazzola | 6-4, 1-6, 7-6 | Italy Santa Margherita Di Pula |
Recent form
Matilde Paoletti, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22.10.2026 | Alessandra Mazzola | L | 7-6, 7-6 |
| 21.10.2026 | Ginevra Parentini Vallega Montebruno | W | 6-2, 6-4 |
| 16.10.2026 | Jessica Pieri | L | 3-6, 6-1, 6-2 |
| 16.10.2026 | Jessica Pieri | L | 3-6, 6-1, 6-2 |
| 15.10.2026 | Chiara Fornasieri | W | 6-2, 7-5 |
| 14.10.2026 | Giulia Paterno | W | 6-0, 6-0 |
| 09.10.2026 | Alessandra Mazzola | L | 6-4, 1-6, 7-6 |
| 08.10.2026 | Eva Bennemann | W | 7-5, 6-2 |
| 07.10.2026 | Francesca Gandolfi | W | 6-3, 6-3 |
| 18.09.2026 | Alisa Oktiabreva | L | 6-3, 6-4 |
Alessandra Mazzola, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24.10.2026 | Jennifer Ruggeri | L | 6-4, 6-1 |
| 23.10.2026 | Despina Papamichail | W | 6-3, 6-4 |
| 22.10.2026 | Matilde Paoletti | W | 7-6, 7-6 |
| 20.10.2026 | Lucie Nguyen Tan | W | 6-0, 6-3 |
| 15.10.2026 | Angelica Raggi | L | 1-6, 6-2, 6-3 |
| 14.10.2026 | Laima Vladson | W | 7-6, 6-3 |
| 10.10.2026 | Joelle Lilly Sophie Steur | L | 6-4, 6-3 |
| 09.10.2026 | Matilde Paoletti | W | 6-4, 1-6, 7-6 |
| 08.10.2026 | Beatrise Zeltina | W | 6-3, 2-6, 6-3 |
| 07.10.2026 | Sofia Shapatava | W | 7-6, 4-3 |
Common opponents, last 12 months
| Opponent | Matilde Paoletti | Alessandra Mazzola |
|---|---|---|
| Despina Papamichail | 1-0 W 6-3, 5-7, 6-0 |
1-0 W 6-3, 6-4 |
| Diletta Cherubini | 1-0 W 6-1, 6-0 |
0-1 L 6-1, 6-2 |
| Francesca Gandolfi | 1-0 W 6-3, 6-3 |
1-0 W 6-3, 6-4 |
| Gabriela Ce | 0-1 L 6-1, 7-5 |
1-0 W 6-2, 6-0 |
| Maria Toma | 1-0 W 7-6, 6-3 |
1-0 W 6-1, 1-6, 6-1 |
| Sofia Rocchetti | 0-1 L 2-6, 6-1, 3-0 |
2-0 W 6-1, 6-4, W 7-6, 7-5 |
Earlier previews of this matchup
- 2026-10-27: WTA Santa Margherita Di Pula (X) I (Italy), model gave Matilde Paoletti 54% at -161
- 2026-10-26: WTA Santa Margherita Di Pula (X) I (Italy), model gave Matilde Paoletti 54% at -161
- 2026-10-25: WTA Santa Margherita Di Pula (X) I (Italy), model gave Matilde Paoletti 54% at -161
- 2026-10-24: WTA Santa Margherita Di Pula (X) I (Italy), model gave Matilde Paoletti 54% at -161
- 2026-10-23: WTA Santa Margherita Di Pula (X) I (Italy), model gave Matilde Paoletti 54% at -161
- 2026-10-22: WTA Santa Margherita Di Pula (X) I (Italy), model gave Matilde Paoletti 54% at -161
- 2026-10-21: WTA Santa Margherita Di Pula (X) I (Italy), model gave Matilde Paoletti 54% at -161
- 2026-10-08: WTA Santa Margherita Di Pula (IX) II (Italy), model gave Matilde Paoletti 54% at -238
Matilde Paoletti vs Alessandra Mazzola: quick answers
Who will win Matilde Paoletti vs Alessandra Mazzola?
Tennis Gauge's model favors Matilde Paoletti, giving them a 54% chance to win against Alessandra Mazzola (46%).
What is the head-to-head record between Matilde Paoletti and Alessandra Mazzola?
Alessandra Mazzola leads 2-0. Their most recent meeting was on October 22, 2026, won by Alessandra Mazzola 7-6, 7-6 at Italy Santa Margherita Di Pula.
Who is in better form, Matilde Paoletti or Alessandra Mazzola?
Matilde Paoletti is 5-5 in their last 10 matches (current streak: 1 Loss). Alessandra Mazzola is 7-3 (current streak: 1 Loss).
How does Tennis Gauge rate Matilde Paoletti and Alessandra Mazzola?
Matilde Paoletti is rated 6573 (WTA #436) and Alessandra Mazzola is rated 6621 (WTA #368). Ratings update after every match and weight recent results and opponent strength.
What are the odds for Matilde Paoletti vs Alessandra Mazzola?
Matilde Paoletti is priced at -161 and Alessandra Mazzola at +107, which implies a 62% and 48% chance to win. The model and the odds roughly agree, so neither side shows value.