Aleksandar Tolev vs Mattia Nannelli
Updated
Mattia Nannelli beat Aleksandar Tolev 6-4, 7-5, matching the Tennis Gauge model's pick. Mattia Nannelli leads 1-0 in their head-to-head. Tolev is 6-4 in their last 10, Nannelli 7-3.
Pre-match prediction
The model makes Mattia Nannelli a 66% favorite. The odds and the model roughly agree, so neither side shows value.
Model minus book: -4 pts
Model minus book: -4 pts
Model estimates, not betting advice. How the numbers work · Expected value of Mattia Nannelli at -233 · Model track record
Player comparison
| Aleksandar Tolev | Mattia Nannelli | |
|---|---|---|
| Tennis Gauge rating | 6145 | 6250 |
| Tour rank | ATP #1926 | ATP #1365 |
| Last 10 matches | 6-4 | 7-3 |
| Last 30 days | 2-1 | 2-0 |
| Current streak | 1 Loss | 2 Losses |
| Season record | 16-9 | 9-8 |
| UTR | 11.91 | 12.98 |
Head to head
Mattia Nannelli leads 1-0.
| Date | Winner | Score | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09.10.2026 | Mattia Nannelli | 6-4, 7-5 | Bulgaria Burgas |
Recent form
Aleksandar Tolev, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09.10.2026 | Mattia Nannelli | L | 6-4, 7-5 |
| 08.10.2026 | Maxence Bertimon | W | 6-4, 6-3 |
| 07.10.2026 | Mihai Alexandru Coman | W | 6-3 |
| 07.10.2026 | Mihai Alexandru Coman | W | 6-3 |
| 20.09.2026 | Sebastian Gima | L | 6-1, 6-3 |
| 31.08.2026 | Stefan Popovic | L | 6-4, 6-1 |
| 30.08.2026 | Samir Hamza Reguig | W | 6-3, 5-7, 6-4 |
| 24.08.2026 | Mihail Ivanov | L | 6-2, 5-7, 1-0 |
| 23.08.2026 | Filip Pavic | W | 6-1, 6-3 |
| 22.08.2026 | Aleksandar Trifunovski | W | 6-1, 6-2 |
Mattia Nannelli, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18.10.2026 | Dimitris Sakellaridis | L | 7-5, 6-3 |
| 11.10.2026 | George Lazarov | L | 6-0, 6-1 |
| 10.10.2026 | Matei Florin Breazu | W | 5-7, 6-4, 7-6 |
| 09.10.2026 | Aleksandar Tolev | W | 6-4, 7-5 |
| 08.10.2026 | Alexander Vasilev | W | 6-4, 6-3 |
| 06.10.2026 | Rodion Chetverikov | W | 7-6, 4-6, 6-0 |
| 05.10.2026 | Andrea Paolini | W | 6-2, 6-1 |
| 04.10.2026 | Aleksandar Konstantinov | W | 6-2, 6-3 |
| 28.09.2026 | David Tixhon | L | 6-1, 6-3 |
| 27.09.2026 | Mikhail Osipov | W | 6-0, 6-0 |
Common opponents, last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months.
Aleksandar Tolev vs Mattia Nannelli: quick answers
Who won Aleksandar Tolev vs Mattia Nannelli?
Mattia Nannelli beat Aleksandar Tolev 6-4, 7-5, matching the Tennis Gauge model's pick.
What is the head-to-head record between Aleksandar Tolev and Mattia Nannelli?
Mattia Nannelli leads 1-0. Their most recent meeting was on October 9, 2026, won by Mattia Nannelli 6-4, 7-5 at Bulgaria Burgas.
Who is in better form, Aleksandar Tolev or Mattia Nannelli?
Aleksandar Tolev is 6-4 in their last 10 matches (current streak: 1 Loss). Mattia Nannelli is 7-3 (current streak: 2 Losses).
How does Tennis Gauge rate Aleksandar Tolev and Mattia Nannelli?
Aleksandar Tolev is rated 6145 (ATP #1926) and Mattia Nannelli is rated 6250 (ATP #1365). Ratings update after every match and weight recent results and opponent strength.
What are the odds for Aleksandar Tolev vs Mattia Nannelli?
Aleksandar Tolev is priced at +168 and Mattia Nannelli at -233, which implies a 37% and 70% chance to win. The model and the odds roughly agree, so neither side shows value.