Alejandro Tabilo vs Pablo Carreno Busta
Updated
Pablo Carreno Busta beat Alejandro Tabilo 4-6, 7-6, 6-4, an upset by the model's numbers, which favored Alejandro Tabilo at 54%. They are tied 1-1 in their head-to-head. Tabilo is 3-7 in their last 10, Busta 4-6.
Pre-match prediction
The model makes Alejandro Tabilo a 54% favorite. At +157 the sportsbook implies 39% for Pablo Carreno Busta, 7 points below the model's 46%.
Model minus book: -12 pts
Model minus book: +7 pts
Model estimates, not betting advice. How the numbers work · Expected value of Pablo Carreno Busta at +157 · Model track record
Player comparison
| Alejandro Tabilo | Pablo Carreno Busta | |
|---|---|---|
| Tennis Gauge rating | 6905 | 6902 |
| Tour rank | ATP #37 | ATP #41 |
| Last 10 matches | 3-7 | 4-6 |
| Last 30 days | 1-3 | 3-1 |
| Current streak | 3 Losses | 2 Losses |
| Season record | 38-29 | 33-25 |
| UTR | 15.82 | 15.71 |
| Elo (52 weeks) | 1822 | 1768 |
| Best surface | Hard | Clay |
| Worst surface | Grass | Grass |
Head to head
Tied 1-1.
| Date | Winner | Score | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10.10.2026 | Pablo Carreno Busta | 4-6, 7-6, 6-4 | China Shangai - Masters |
| 06.05.2026 | Alejandro Tabilo | 6-2, 6-1 | Italy Roma |
Recent form
Alejandro Tabilo, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27.10.2026 | Rafael Jodar | L | 6-4, 6-2 |
| 10.10.2026 | Pablo Carreno Busta | L | 4-6, 7-6, 6-4 |
| 03.10.2026 | Denis Shapovalov | L | 7-5, 3-6, 6-4 |
| 30.09.2026 | Tommy Paul | W | 6-1, 6-2 |
| 25.09.2026 | Adrian Mannarino | L | 6-4, 6-4 |
| 19.09.2026 | Daniel Merida Aguilar | L | 5-7, 6-3, 6-3 |
| 06.09.2026 | Alexander Zverev | L | 6-2, 7-6, 6-2 |
| 03.09.2026 | Alexei Popyrin | W | 2-6, 7-6, 7-6, 6-2 |
| 31.08.2026 | Yannick Hanfmann | W | 6-3, 6-2, 6-7, 6-3 |
| 17.08.2026 | Rafael Jodar | L | 6-2, 6-1 |
Pablo Carreno Busta, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24.10.2026 | Jacob Fearnley | L | 6-4, 3-6, 6-3 |
| 12.10.2026 | Felix Auger Aliassime | L | 6-3, 4-6, 6-1 |
| 10.10.2026 | Alejandro Tabilo | W | 4-6, 7-6, 6-4 |
| 08.10.2026 | Mariano Navone | W | 4-6, 7-5, 6-3 |
| 02.10.2026 | Daniil Medvedev | L | 6-4, 6-2 |
| 29.09.2026 | Adrian Mannarino | W | 6-3, 6-4 |
| 28.09.2026 | Yi Zhou | W | 7-5, 6-3 |
| 30.08.2026 | Jiri Lehecka | L | 6-1, 7-6, 4-6, 6-2 |
| 24.08.2026 | Adolfo Daniel Vallejo | L | 6-4, 3-0 |
| 16.08.2026 | Andrey Rublev | L | 7-6, 6-1 |
Common opponents, last 12 months
| Opponent | Alejandro Tabilo | Pablo Carreno Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Adolfo Daniel Vallejo | 0-1 L 6-2, 1-6, 6-1 |
0-1 L 6-4, 3-0 |
| Adrian Mannarino | 0-1 L 6-4, 6-4 |
1-0 W 6-3, 6-4 |
| Andrey Rublev | 1-1 L 6-4, 4-6, 6-4, W 6-7, 6-2, 6-4 |
0-1 L 7-6, 6-1 |
| Camilo Ugo Carabelli | 1-0 W 6-4, 6-2 |
0-1 L 3-6, 7-5, 7-5 |
| Daniil Medvedev | 0-1 L 6-4, 6-2 |
0-1 L 6-4, 6-2 |
| Denis Shapovalov | 0-1 L 7-5, 3-6, 6-4 |
2-0 W 6-3, 7-6, W 6-2, 6-4 |
| Felix Auger Aliassime | 0-1 L 6-3, 7-5, 6-1 |
0-1 L 6-3, 4-6, 6-1 |
| Francisco Comesana | 1-0 W 6-4, 6-2 |
1-0 W 6-4, 6-3 |
| Jan Lennard Struff | 1-0 W 6-3, 6-4 |
1-0 W 6-4, 7-6 |
| Jiri Lehecka | 0-2 L 3-6, 7-6, 6-4, L 4-6, 7-6, 6-3 |
1-2 L 6-1, 7-6, 4-6, 6-2, W 6-3, 7-6, 6-3, L 7-6, 6-4 |
| Luca Van Assche | 1-0 W 7-6, 3-6, 6-3 |
0-1 L 6-3, 4-6, 6-2 |
| Marton Fucsovics | 1-0 W 6-4, 6-3 |
1-0 W 4-6, 7-6, 6-2 |
| Miomir Kecmanovic | 0-1 L 7-6, 6-3 |
1-0 W 4-6, 6-3, 7-6 |
| Quentin Halys | 0-1 L 6-2, 6-2, 7-6 |
0-1 L 4-6, 7-5, 6-3 |
| Rafael Jodar | 1-3 L 6-4, 6-2, L 6-2, 6-1, L 6-7, 6-4, 6-4, W 6-1, 6-2 |
0-2 L 3-6, 6-3, 1-6, 6-3, 6-4, L 4-6, 4-6, 6-1, 6-2, 6-2 |
| Roberto Bautista Agut | 1-0 W 4-6, 6-2, 6-4 |
0-1 L 3-6, 6-1, 10-3 |
| Sebastian Baez | 0-1 L 7-6, 6-1 |
1-0 W 5-7, 7-5, 7-5 |
| Tallon Griekspoor | 1-0 W 7-6, 4-6, 6-4 |
0-1 L 6-4, 6-4 |
| Thiago Agustin Tirante | 2-0 W 4-6, 6-3, 6-3, W 7-6, 6-7, 6-1 |
1-0 W 7-6, 7-5, 3-6, 6-4 |
| Valentin Royer | 1-0 W 6-2, 6-4 |
0-1 L 1-6, 7-5, 6-2 |
| Yi Zhou | 1-0 W 4-6, 6-4, 6-3 |
1-0 W 7-5, 6-3 |
Alejandro Tabilo vs Pablo Carreno Busta: quick answers
Who won Alejandro Tabilo vs Pablo Carreno Busta?
Pablo Carreno Busta beat Alejandro Tabilo 4-6, 7-6, 6-4, an upset by the model's numbers, which favored Alejandro Tabilo at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alejandro Tabilo and Pablo Carreno Busta?
They are tied 1-1. Their most recent meeting was on October 10, 2026, won by Pablo Carreno Busta 4-6, 7-6, 6-4 at China Shangai - Masters.
Who is in better form, Alejandro Tabilo or Pablo Carreno Busta?
Alejandro Tabilo is 3-7 in their last 10 matches (current streak: 3 Losses). Pablo Carreno Busta is 4-6 (current streak: 2 Losses).
How does Tennis Gauge rate Alejandro Tabilo and Pablo Carreno Busta?
Alejandro Tabilo is rated 6905 (ATP #37) and Pablo Carreno Busta is rated 6902 (ATP #41). Ratings update after every match and weight recent results and opponent strength.
What are the odds for Alejandro Tabilo vs Pablo Carreno Busta?
Alejandro Tabilo is priced at -192 and Pablo Carreno Busta at +157, which implies a 66% and 39% chance to win. The model rates Pablo Carreno Busta 7 points higher than the odds do (46% vs 39%), which Tennis Gauge counts as value.