Daniil Medvedev vs Adrian Mannarino
Updated
Tennis Gauge's model favors Daniil Medvedev, giving them a 88% chance to win against Adrian Mannarino (12%). Medvedev is 9-1 in their last 10, Mannarino 8-2.
Prediction
The model makes Daniil Medvedev a 88% favorite. The odds and the model roughly agree, so neither side shows value.
Model minus book: -1 pts
Model minus book: -5 pts
Model estimates, not betting advice. How the numbers work · Expected value of Daniil Medvedev at -769 · Model track record
Player comparison
| Daniil Medvedev | Adrian Mannarino | |
|---|---|---|
| Tennis Gauge rating | 6965 | 6880 |
| Tour rank | ATP #9 | ATP #52 |
| Last 10 matches | 9-1 | 8-2 |
| Last 30 days | 12-2 | 8-2 |
| Current streak | 6 Wins | 4 Wins |
| Season record | 53-19 | 27-36 |
| UTR | 15.97 | 15.25 |
| Elo (52 weeks) | 1980 | 1694 |
| Best surface | Hard | Grass |
| Worst surface | Clay | Clay |
Head to head
Daniil Medvedev and Adrian Mannarino haven't played each other in our records.
Recent form
Daniil Medvedev, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29.10.2026 | Cameron Norrie | W | 4-6, 6-3, 7-6 |
| 28.10.2026 | Daniel Merida Aguilar | W | 7-6, 6-1 |
| 25.10.2026 | Nikoloz Basilashvili | W | 6-7, 6-1, 6-3 |
| 24.10.2026 | Alexander Bublik | W | 6-3 |
| 23.10.2026 | Terence Atmane | W | 6-4, 6-4 |
| 22.10.2026 | Sho Shimabukuro | W | 6-2, 6-1 |
| 17.10.2026 | Rafael Jodar | L | 6-3, 6-4 |
| 16.10.2026 | Tommy Paul | W | 6-3, 1-6, 6-3 |
| 16.10.2026 | Tommy Paul | W | 6-3, 1-6, 6-3 |
| 14.10.2026 | Stefanos Tsitsipas | W | 6-4, 7-5 |
Adrian Mannarino, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28.10.2026 | Jakub Mensik | W | 6-4, 7-5 |
| 27.10.2026 | Ignacio Buse | W | 0-6, 7-5, 6-4 |
| 25.10.2026 | Alex Molcan | W | 7-5, 6-2 |
| 24.10.2026 | Thiago Agustin Tirante | W | 6-4, 7-6 |
| 23.10.2026 | Nikoloz Basilashvili | L | 6-3, 6-1 |
| 21.10.2026 | Andrey Rublev | W | 6-4, 3-6, 6-3 |
| 19.10.2026 | Aleksandar Vukic | W | 7-6, 4-6, 6-3 |
| 11.10.2026 | Karen Khachanov | L | 6-2, 6-4 |
| 09.10.2026 | Flavio Cobolli | W | 6-1, 4-6, 6-3 |
| 07.10.2026 | Nikoloz Basilashvili | W | 6-3, 2-2 |
Common opponents, last 12 months
| Opponent | Daniil Medvedev | Adrian Mannarino |
|---|---|---|
| Adam Walton | 0-1 L 6-2, 1-6, 6-1, 1-6, 6-4 |
1-0 W 6-4, 6-2 |
| Alejandro Tabilo | 1-0 W 6-4, 6-2 |
1-0 W 6-4, 6-4 |
| Alex Michelsen | 2-0 W 6-2, 6-4, W 6-4, 6-2 |
0-1 L 6-4, 7-6 |
| Alexander Bublik | 1-0 W 6-3 |
0-1 L 6-3, 6-1, 6-1 |
| Andrey Rublev | 1-0 W 7-5, 6-4 |
1-1 W 6-4, 3-6, 6-3, L 12-17, 11-13, 18-11, 18-12, 2-0 |
| Arthur Rinderknech | 1-0 W 6-4, 6-4, 6-4 |
1-0 W 7-6, 3-6, 6-3 |
| Daniel Merida Aguilar | 2-0 W 7-6, 6-1, W 3-6, 6-3, 7-5, 6-2 |
0-1 L 4-6, 6-2, 6-2 |
| Denis Shapovalov | 1-0 W 6-4 |
0-2 L 6-7, 6-3, 6-2, L 6-1, 6-4 |
| Felix Auger Aliassime | 1-0 W 6-4, 6-2 |
0-1 L 6-3, 7-6 |
| Flavio Cobolli | 0-1 L 6-3, 5-7, 6-4 |
1-0 W 6-1, 4-6, 6-3 |
| Jesper De Jong | 1-0 W 7-5, 6-2, 7-6 |
0-1 L 6-3, 3-6, 6-1 |
| Juncheng Shang | 2-0 W 6-1, 6-3, W 6-4, 6-2 |
1-0 W 7-6, 6-2 |
| Learner Tien | 0-1 L 6-4, 6-0, 6-3 |
1-0 W 7-5, 6-4 |
| Marin Cilic | 2-0 W 6-1, 6-2, 6-4, W 6-2, 3-6, 6-1 |
0-1 L 6-3, 6-2 |
| Martin Damm | 0-1 L 7-5, 6-3 |
1-0 W 1-6, 6-3, 6-4 |
| Nikoloz Basilashvili | 1-0 W 6-7, 6-1, 6-3 |
1-1 L 6-3, 6-1, W 6-3, 2-2 |
| Pablo Carreno Busta | 1-0 W 6-4, 6-2 |
0-1 L 6-3, 6-4 |
| Sho Shimabukuro | 1-0 W 6-2, 6-1 |
0-1 L 6-3, 6-4 |
| Thiago Agustin Tirante | 1-0 W 6-3, 6-2 |
2-0 W 6-4, 7-6, W 4-6, 3-6, 6-3, 6-3, 6-3 |
| Tommy Paul | 2-0 W 6-3, 1-6, 6-3, W 6-3, 1-6, 6-3 |
0-1 L 6-2, 2-6, 6-4 |
| Ugo Humbert | 0-1 L 7-6, 3-6, 6-3 |
1-1 L 6-3, 6-4, 6-3, W 6-7, 6-3, 7-6 |
Earlier previews of this matchup
- 2026-11-01: ATP Wien (Austria), model gave Daniil Medvedev 88% at -769
- 2026-10-31: ATP Wien (Austria), model gave Daniil Medvedev 88% at -769
- 2026-10-30: ATP Wien (Austria), model gave Daniil Medvedev 88% at -769
Daniil Medvedev vs Adrian Mannarino: quick answers
Who will win Daniil Medvedev vs Adrian Mannarino?
Tennis Gauge's model favors Daniil Medvedev, giving them a 88% chance to win against Adrian Mannarino (12%).
Have Daniil Medvedev and Adrian Mannarino played before?
Not in Tennis Gauge's records. This would be their first recorded meeting.
Who is in better form, Daniil Medvedev or Adrian Mannarino?
Daniil Medvedev is 9-1 in their last 10 matches (current streak: 6 Wins). Adrian Mannarino is 8-2 (current streak: 4 Wins).
How does Tennis Gauge rate Daniil Medvedev and Adrian Mannarino?
Daniil Medvedev is rated 6965 (ATP #9) and Adrian Mannarino is rated 6880 (ATP #52). Ratings update after every match and weight recent results and opponent strength.
What are the odds for Daniil Medvedev vs Adrian Mannarino?
Daniil Medvedev is priced at -769 and Adrian Mannarino at +496, which implies a 88% and 17% chance to win. The model and the odds roughly agree, so neither side shows value.